The Briefing Room
Every day the engine checks 12 readings across the economy, stocks and digital assets. Each one is measured against its own warning level, and several have warned before past downturns.
The risk dashboard
The 12 indicators
Sample dashboard. The readings shown are an example, not current data.
12/12
All clear.
CLOSEST TO THE ALERT LINE
Bitcoin’s market share
58.5%
▼ 58.6% · Sep 25
caution > 59.75%
alert > 63%
Oil (Brent)
$99
▼ $104 · Sep 25
caution > $110
alert > $135
US dollar (DXY)
101.09
▲ 100.97 · Sep 25
caution > 106
Factory activity (ISM)
54.6
▼ 55.6 · Jul
alert < 48
See all 12 warning signs
Recession warning (2Y vs 10Y)Clear
Corporate credit (OAS)Clear
Unemployment trend (Sahm)Clear
Factory activity (ISM)Clear
Services activity (ISM)Clear
US dollar (DXY)Clear
Oil (Brent)Clear
Stock-market fear (VIX)Clear
Bitcoin fund flows, 5 daysClear
Bitcoin vs 200-day averageClear
Stablecoin cash, 30-day changeClear
Bitcoin’s market shareClear
green = clear
amber = caution
red = alert
Each row below explains one reading: what it is, why it matters, and where its warning line comes from.
Economy & markets (8)
Tap any row to expand it.
Recession warning (2Y vs 10Y)Short-term vs long-term Treasury rates: a classic recession warning.
Warning line: 2-year above 10-year (inverted)›
Recession warning (2Y vs 10Y)
Short-term vs long-term Treasury rates: a classic recession warning.
Warning line: 2-year above 10-year (inverted)
What it is. Compares the rate on 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes. Normally the longer loan pays more.
Why it matters. When the 2-year pays more, the curve is inverted: bond markets are pricing trouble. In past cycles, recessions have tended to arrive after the curve flips back to normal, with a long and variable lag.
How to read it. After the curve returns to normal, the row stays in caution for 18 months, then clears. Treat it as a warning, not a countdown.
Where the line comes from
Research-backed alert, our caution windowThe alert fires at the sign change that Federal Reserve research treats as the signal. The 18-month caution window is ours; it sits inside the 6 to 24 month range the San Francisco Fed documents. Most Fed research uses the 10-year minus 3-month spread; we show the 2-year version, the market convention.
The report reads it from: the St. Louis Fed (FRED) 2-year and 10-year Treasury series.
Corporate credit (OAS)The extra interest risky companies pay to borrow.
Warning line: OAS above 4.50%›
Corporate credit (OAS)
The extra interest risky companies pay to borrow.
Warning line: OAS above 4.50%
What it is. The extra interest below-investment-grade companies pay to borrow, on top of what the U.S. government pays.
Why it matters. Lenders often get nervous before stock investors do. Rising spreads mean they want more to take the same risk.
How to read it. Lower is calmer. A reading climbing toward 4.50% means lenders are pulling back.
Where the line comes from
Our thresholdResearch shows widening credit spreads have signaled slowdowns, but no study names 4.00% or 4.50%. Those are round levels widely watched by traders. Fed research also found spreads read on their own give false alarms, which is why this sits alongside eleven other readings.
The report reads it from: the St. Louis Fed (FRED) ICE BofA high yield series.
Unemployment trend (Sahm)How fast unemployment is rising.
Warning line: Sahm rule at 0.50 or higher›
Unemployment trend (Sahm)
How fast unemployment is rising.
Warning line: Sahm rule at 0.50 or higher
What it is. The 3-month average unemployment rate compared with its lowest point of the past 12 months.
Why it matters. A rise of half a percentage point has historically meant a recession was already underway. It is one of the most watched recession gauges.
How to read it. Near 0 means jobs are steady. Climbing toward 0.50 means the job market is weakening.
Where the line comes from
Research-backed alert, our caution levelThe 0.50 alert is Claudia Sahm's own published number. Our 0.35 caution level is a house threshold added as an earlier warning.
The report reads it from: the St. Louis Fed (FRED) real-time Sahm rule series.
Factory activity (ISM)Monthly survey: are factories growing or shrinking?
Warning line: ISM below 48›
Factory activity (ISM)
Monthly survey: are factories growing or shrinking?
Warning line: ISM below 48
What it is. A monthly survey of the people who buy supplies for U.S. factories: are orders, output, hiring and prices up or down?
Why it matters. Factories feel changes in demand early, so this is one of the first reads each month on whether the economy is speeding up or slowing down.
How to read it. Above 50 means factories are growing; below 50 means they are shrinking. No caution level: clear or alert.
Where the line comes from
Ours, set ahead of the publisherISM says a reading above 47.5 generally means the overall economy is expanding. Our alert at 48 sits a little above that, so it warns a little earlier on purpose.
The report reads it from: ISM's monthly release.
Services activity (ISM)The same survey for stores, banks, restaurants and shippers.
Warning line: ISM below 49›
Services activity (ISM)
The same survey for stores, banks, restaurants and shippers.
Warning line: ISM below 49
What it is. The same monthly survey for service businesses such as stores, restaurants, banks, hospitals and shippers.
Why it matters. Services make up most of the U.S. economy, and the survey's prices section is an early clue about inflation.
How to read it. Above 50 means the service sector is growing; below 50 means it is shrinking.
Where the line comes from
Ours, set ahead of the publisherISM says a reading above 48.1 generally means the overall economy is expanding. Our alert at 49 sits about a point above that, so it warns earlier.
The report reads it from: ISM's monthly release.
US dollar (DXY)The dollar against six major currencies.
Warning line: DXY at 106 or higher›
US dollar (DXY)
The dollar against six major currencies.
Warning line: DXY at 106 or higher
What it is. The dollar's value against a basket of six major currencies, over half of it the euro.
Why it matters. A strong dollar tightens money conditions around the world and tends to weigh on commodities, stocks and digital assets.
How to read it. Around 100 is middle of the road. At 106 or higher the row turns to caution. A strong dollar is a headwind, not a crisis, so there is no alert level.
Where the line comes from
Our thresholdResearch links a stronger dollar to tighter global financing and weaker investment, but names no index level. 106 is ours.
The report reads it from: Yahoo Finance.
Oil (Brent)The global price of a barrel of crude.
Warning line: Brent at $135 or higher›
Oil (Brent)
The global price of a barrel of crude.
Warning line: Brent at $135 or higher
What it is. The global benchmark price for a barrel of crude oil.
Why it matters. Expensive oil feeds inflation and squeezes what households and businesses can spend elsewhere. Past oil shocks have come before slowdowns.
How to read it. Caution at $110 and alert at $135. A fast jump matters more than a slow drift.
Where the line comes from
Our thresholdResearch ties major oil shocks to downturns, but uses percentage jumps, not a dollar level. $110 and $135 are ours.
The report reads it from: Yahoo Finance (Brent futures).
Stock-market fear (VIX)Wall Street's fear gauge for the next 30 days.
Warning line: VIX at 35 or higher›
Stock-market fear (VIX)
Wall Street's fear gauge for the next 30 days.
Warning line: VIX at 35 or higher
What it is. How much the S&P 500 is expected to swing over the next 30 days, priced from options.
Why it matters. Fear shows up here fast. Sharp spikes usually come with sharp stock market drops.
How to read it. Under 20 is calm. Caution from 29.25, alert at 35, full panic above 45.
Where the line comes from
Our thresholdCboe defines no alert levels, and we found no research naming 29.25 or 35. They are ours, set for consistent daily monitoring.
The report reads it from: Yahoo Finance.
Crypto (4)
Bitcoin fund flows, 5 daysMoney into or out of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, last 5 days.
Warning line: outflows of $500M or more over 5 days›
Bitcoin fund flows, 5 days
Money into or out of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, last 5 days.
Warning line: outflows of $500M or more over 5 days
What it is. The net dollars that moved into or out of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over the last 5 trading days.
Why it matters. ETFs are how funds, advisors and institutions hold Bitcoin through a normal brokerage account, so this shows what big money is doing.
How to read it. Positive is net buying. Any net outflow is caution; $500M or more out over 5 days is an alert. The report also shows 10 and 30-day totals.
Where the line comes from
Our thresholdThese ETFs only began trading in January 2024, so there is not enough history for anyone to set research thresholds. Both levels are ours.
The report reads it from: CoinGlass.
Bitcoin vs 200-day averageBitcoin against its average price of the last 200 days.
Warning line: 15% or more below the 200-day average›
Bitcoin vs 200-day average
Bitcoin against its average price of the last 200 days.
Warning line: 15% or more below the 200-day average
What it is. Bitcoin's price compared with its average over the last 200 days, its long-term trend line.
Why it matters. Trading above the line means the long-term trend is up; falling well below it has marked the deeper downtrends.
How to read it. Shown as a percent above or below the average. The further below, the weaker the trend.
Where the line comes from
A convention, our bandThe 200-day average is a widely used convention, not a research finding. The one Bitcoin-specific study we found tested it and could not show it beats simply holding. The 15% band is ours.
The report reads it from: Yahoo Finance.
Stablecoin cash, 30-day changeThe supply of dollar-pegged coins: the market's cash pile.
Warning line: down 5% or more in 30 days›
Stablecoin cash, 30-day change
The supply of dollar-pegged coins: the market's cash pile.
Warning line: down 5% or more in 30 days
What it is. The total stablecoin market (DeFiLlama).
Why it matters. Stablecoins are the cash of the digital asset market. A shrinking supply means money is leaving.
How to read it. Shown as the change over the last 30 days. Small moves either way are normal; a steady drain is the warning.
Where the line comes from
Our thresholdStablecoin research covers pegs and regulation, not supply as a warning sign. The 5% level is ours.
The report reads it from: DeFiLlama (total stablecoin market).
Bitcoin’s market shareBitcoin's share of the whole digital asset market.
Warning line: Bitcoin dominance at 63% or higher›
Bitcoin’s market share
Bitcoin's share of the whole digital asset market.
Warning line: Bitcoin dominance at 63% or higher
What it is. Bitcoin's share of the total value of the digital asset market.
Why it matters. When money retreats from smaller coins into Bitcoin, dominance rises. It is a defensive move within digital assets.
How to read it. Rising toward 63% means investors are pulling back to the largest, most established coin.
Where the line comes from
Our thresholdWe found no research naming a dominance level as a warning sign. The levels are ours.
The report reads it from: CoinMarketCap.
Crypto Fear & Greed (for context, no alert line)
Digital asset mood, from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). Around 50 is neutral. Alternative.me ↗
Glossary
HUD (Head-Up Display): a transparent visual overlay that projects critical data directly into a user's line of sight, allowing them to stay focused on what is ahead.
DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging): investing a fixed amount on a regular schedule, regardless of price.
OAS (Option-Adjusted Spread): The extra interest risky companies pay to borrow. When it rises, credit markets are getting nervous.
ISM (Institute for Supply Management): Monthly surveys of factory and services managers. Below 50 means the sector is shrinking.
PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index): The headline number from the ISM manufacturing and services surveys; below 50 means that part of the economy is shrinking.
VIX (Volatility Index): The stock market's fear gauge. Higher means investors expect bigger price swings ahead.
BTC (Bitcoin) dominance: Bitcoin's share of total crypto market value. When it rises, money is moving to the safest crypto.
Sahm rule: When the unemployment rate rises fast enough, a recession has likely already started. Named for economist Claudia Sahm.
DXY (US Dollar Index): Measures the US dollar against other major currencies. A very strong dollar often pressures markets.
Brent: The global oil price benchmark. Sharp spikes can squeeze the economy and stoke inflation.
ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund): A fund that trades like a stock; spot Bitcoin ETFs let investors buy Bitcoin through a brokerage account.
Fed (Federal Reserve): America's central bank; it sets interest rates and guides the economy.
Fear & Greed Index: A 0-100 gauge of crypto mood; 0 is extreme fear, 100 is extreme greed.
Yield curve: Short-term vs long-term interest rates; when short rates rise above long rates, a recession has often followed.
Bitcoin (BTC): The first and largest cryptocurrency; the report tracks its price, dominance, and on-chain health.
Stablecoin: A crypto designed to hold $1, like USDC and USDT; a place to park cash.
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