June 18, 2026
Stocks shook off the hawkish Fed, but Bitcoin kept sliding to its deepest point below trend this pullback even as the value case (extreme fear, undervalued, calm credit) quietly firmed. The next test is the...
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Oct 5: Services Cool as Prices Spike
The ISM Services index tracks business activity across the services sector, most of the US economy. It cooled to 54.9 in September from 55.4, just under the 55.2 consensus, but is still growing. Prices paid jumped to 74, the highest since July 2022.
Oct 2: Only 29K Jobs, Stocks Rally
September payrolls added just 29,000 jobs, far below the roughly 84,000 expected, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%. Markets read it as Fed breathing room: stocks rallied, bond yields fell, Bitcoin held near $86,000, and the risk dashboard stays 12/12 clear.
Oct 1: Factories Expand Again, Input Prices Spike
September ISM Manufacturing printed 54.5, the ninth straight month of factory expansion, while input prices jumped to a two-year high of 77.9. Oil climbed toward $102 and credit spreads ticked up; Bitcoin held near $84,500.
Sept 30: Inflation Cools, Growth Surprises
Inflation cooled more than expected in today's PCE report (3.4% headline, 3.0% core) and Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2%. All 12 warning signs remain clear.