Macro held its ground again this week: credit spreads at 2.75%, factories expanding, the dollar soft. Bitcoin ETFs took in $594M over five days even as sentiment stayed at high fear. Everything now hinges on tomorrow's Jobs Report.
Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $330M leave over five days, the largest outflow in more than two weeks. The crowd also turned less fearful, which trims the contrarian bonus, and the two together took six points off the composite to +24.
Producer prices (PPI) were flat in July and the annual rate cooled to 4.7% from 5.5%, undershooting forecasts. With both inflation prints behind it, the engine released its pause, and indicators are leaning bullish today.
Core CPI eased to 2.5% in today's report. Despite the favorable data, the engine is holding firm on its scheduled pause until Thursday's PPI costs are released.
The market's underlying health has completely decoupled from recent price action. Driven by a massive reversal in BTC ETF flows, conditions have fully recovered from the early June slump.