July 24: Risk thresholds read healthy today
All ten risk thresholds read healthy today (see the 10-institional dashboard below) — credit, the Sahm rule, oil, the dollar, both ISM readings, volatility, BTC ETF flows and dominance, and stablecoins.
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August 14: The Refill Stalls
Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $330M leave over five days, the largest outflow in more than two weeks. The crowd also turned less fearful, which trims the contrarian bonus, and the two together took six points off the composite to +24.
August 13: The Pause Lifts
Producer prices (PPI) were flat in July and the annual rate cooled to 4.7% from 5.5%, undershooting forecasts. With both inflation prints behind it, the engine released its pause, and indicators are leaning bullish today.
August 12: Core Inflation Cools
Core CPI eased to 2.5% in today's report. Despite the favorable data, the engine is holding firm on its scheduled pause until Thursday's PPI costs are released.
August 11: The Quiet Recovery
The market's underlying health has completely decoupled from recent price action. Driven by a massive reversal in BTC ETF flows, conditions have fully recovered from the early June slump.