Daily Signal July 24: ten risk thresholds read healthy today
All ten risk thresholds read healthy today (see the 10-institional dashboard below) — credit, the Sahm rule, oil, the dollar, both ISM readings, volatility, BTC ETF flows and dominance, and stablecoins.
How this score works
Today’s Signal · Jul 24
+24
▼ -4 from yesterday
FAVORABLE
−1000+100
Routine DCA continues — add extra (~1.5x)
The signal is constructive — conditions are better than a typical day. Routine DCA continues; some investors add a little extra.
What moved today
BTC64,994→64,116BTC ETF flows$+609M→$+406MOAS2.68→2.77
Next catalystIn 5 days
Wednesday, July 29
FOMC Rate Decision (Jul) — the FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve sets interest rates; can move stocks and crypto.
Today’s analysis
Where things stand
Conditions read favorable with the score at +24, down 4 on the day. That sits inside the last month’s +6 to +31 range.
What’s working
Corporate credit very strong: borrowing costs unusually low. Crypto crowd is very worried: strong conditions for patient buyers.
What to watch
Bitcoin down 21% from 90-day high: notable pullback.
On the calendar
Next major event: FOMC Rate Decision (Jul), in 5 days. The window until then is clear for routine DCA.
Markets at a glance
Stocks · sentiment · crypto
US Stocks · Mixed
S&P 500
7,412
+0.0%
Nasdaq
24,976
-0.6%
Dow
51,947
+0.5%
Stock Volatility (VIX)
19
Calm
Crypto Fear & Greed
28
Fear
Bitcoin · 24h
$64,116
-1.6%Below 200-day · −11%
Ethereum · 24h
$1,858
-1.2%Tracking BTC
BTC Dominance
Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market.
Bitcoin-led — a cautious tilt toward the safer coin.
Bitcoin · valuation & cycle
Where price sits in the cycle
MVRV-Z0.45UndervaluedEarly recovery
NUPL0.19Mild profit
Full breakdown · 200-day, ETF, on-chain
BTC vs 200-Day Avg−11%
BTC Price
$64,116
200-Day Avg
$72,407
200-day Simple Moving Average — Bitcoin’s average price over the last 200 days. A long-term trend line. Below it = downtrend; a big stretch above = parabolic, historically a cycle-top warning.
BTC · DemandETF Flows · 5d net · (live-CoinGlass)
+$406MInflows
Jul 17Jul 23
Bitcoin · Cycle Position
AccumEarlyLateDistBear
Early Bull · MVRV-Z 0.45
Bitcoin has escaped the bottom but momentum is still building. Historically low relative to its range, with holders just turning profitable.
On-Chain Valuation
MVRV-Z
Undervalued
0.45
Compares Bitcoin’s price to what holders collectively paid. Below 0 = historically low; higher = elevated. Pre-2024 cycles topped near 7–8; the 2025 top reached only ~2.5, suggesting the ETF era may have compressed peaks.
NUPL
Mild profit
0.19
Net Unrealized Profit / Loss — how much profit holders sit on. Below 0 = underwater; higher = euphoric greed. Pre-2024 cycles peaked near 0.75; the 2025 cycle reached only ~0.56.
Institutional Dashboard
Economy · Stock Market · Crypto-Flows
10 of 10 thresholds healthy
10 HEALTHY · 0 ELEVATED · 0 TRIGGERED
BTC ETF Flows
+$406M
5-DAY NET · RED IF NET OUTFLOWS
Corporate Credit (OAS)
2.77%
TRIGGER 4.50%
Recession Signal (Sahm Rule)
0.07
TRIGGER 0.50
Oil (Brent)
$98
TRIGGER $110
US Dollar (DXY)
101.5
TRIGGER 106
Show all 10 thresholds
ISM Manufacturing
53.3
CONTRACTS BELOW 48
ISM Services
54.0
CONTRACTS BELOW 49
Stock Volatility (VIX)
19
TRIGGER 35
BTC Dominance
58.8%
TRIGGER 63%
Stablecoins
$303.5B
CRYPTO CASH READY TO BUY · 30-DAY −1.8% VS −5% TRIGGER
Dual FearInactive
When stock-market fear and crypto fear spike at the same time, this lights up green — consider increasing your DCA. It’s rare, and historically one of the best times to invest.
Override Triggers0 of 6 · all clear
Credit crisis
ClearOil shock
ClearEuphoria composite
ClearVIX pause zone
ClearVIX capitulation
ClearDual capitulation
ClearALL CLEAR — SCORE-BASED SIGNAL ACTIVE
Score breakdown
Macro & crypto indicators · −100 to +100
The daily score combines macro and crypto indicators on a −100 to +100 scale, with 6 safety overrides watching for extremes. Think of it like a baseball batting average — a +30 is meaningful, the same way a .300 average is great. A +60 is .400 territory — the rare readings. Most scores land between −30 and +30.
Show indicator-by-indicator scoring
Economy
+5Credit healthy (OAS 2.77%)BULLISH
+5M2 growing (+1.4%)BULLISH
+2Employment stable (0.07)BULLISH
+1Manufacturing positive (53.3%)BULLISH
Market Sentiment
+7High fear (Fear & Greed 28)BULLISH
+1BTC ETF positive ($+406M)BULLISH
Crypto
+6MVRV undervalued (0.45)BULLISH
−3Bitcoin price down 21% in 90 daysBEARISH
— 6 indicators neutral
+27 bullish+−3 bearish=+24
Score history
111 days recorded
Show score chart and trend detail
MAR 30TODAY
Chart color: green = trending up, blue = pulling back (still positive), red = trending into negative territory.
Bottom line
The signal is constructive — conditions are better than a typical day. Routine DCA continues; some investors add a little extra.
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How it works · Glossary · Backtests
This is NOT financial advice. HUD DCA™ provides market-condition assessments for educational purposes only and is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or commodity trading advisor. Backtested results are hypothetical and do not represent actual trading; digital assets carry substantial risk of total loss, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a financial advisor before investing.
