May 13, 2026
PPI ran 3x consensus — biggest monthly print since March 2022. Engine paused DCA before CPI Tuesday and PPI today, now flipped to NEUTRAL. First NEUTRAL day of the live cycle. This is what discipline pays for.
Today’s Signal · May 13
+14
▼ -9 from yesterday
Maintain DCA
NEUTRAL
−100
+100
Danger
≤ −10
Neutral
−10 to +15
Favorable
≥ +15
Action
Standard DCA — no change needed
Signals are balanced — no strong edge either way. Standard DCA; no reason to change.
What moved today
BTC81,038→79,278BTC ETF flows$+127M→$-574MMVRV1.0→0.9
7 of 13 conditions favor accumulation
Today's Analysis
Positive
Engine paused before BOTH inflation prints — first NEUTRAL day of the live cycle
PPI ran 3x consensus — the biggest monthly print since March 2022 — and the engine had subs paused before it landed.
PPI came in HOT at +6.0% YoY (vs +4.9% consensus) and +1.4% MoM. BTC dropped to $78,704 intraday on the release. The engine paused DCA Sunday at +27, held WAIT FOR through Tuesday’s hot CPI, held again through this morning’s hotter PPI, and only now flipped to NEUTRAL at +14 as conditions cooled.
Standard DCA buyers walking into either print at 8:29 AM caught the moves down. This is what the discipline is for — two back-to-back binary catalysts, both navigated.
Bitcoin is mechanically cheaper now than yesterday
MVRV-Z dropped from 0.96 to 0.93 — deeper into the undervalued zone.
BTC at $79,400 is roughly $3K below yesterday’s open. NEUTRAL doesn’t mean “don’t buy” — it means no excess edge in either direction.
For DCA buyers on a fixed schedule, today is a cheaper accumulation day than Tuesday was. The macro overhang is real, but on-chain valuation just shifted in your favor.
Risks
PPI services drove the print — stickier than energy, feeds PCE directly
Services inflation is structurally stickier than energy, and these components feed core PCE directly.
Roughly 60% of April’s PPI rise came from services (+1.2%), not energy. Components like portfolio management and health-care services flow into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Markets now price ~100% odds of NO cut at the June FOMC; rate-HIKE odds for December crossed 30% on Polymarket/Kalshi. Goldman pushed its next-cut call to December 2026. 10Y yield at 4.47% (highest since July). Duration-sensitive Bitcoin trades against this curve.
Warsh confirmed today — inherits inflation problem on Day 1
The dovish-pivot thesis is being stress-tested before the new Fed Chair even takes office.
Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh 54-45 today on largely party lines; he’s sworn in Friday. He walks into the hottest CPI+PPI combo in three years.
Wells Fargo’s read: “Warsh may advocate looking through a one-off energy shock, but other parts of the Fed appear less relaxed.” The June FOMC is his first — the market has no signal yet on his reaction function. Peak transition uncertainty into the weekend.
Upcoming
Warsh sworn in Friday (May 15) — first FOMC is June
Six weeks of policy ambiguity that markets will fill with narrative until his first FOMC.
Confirmed by the Senate today 54-45. Powell’s 8-year term concludes Friday; Warsh becomes 17th Fed Chair.
Compressed liquidity expected Friday afternoon. Any pre-FOMC speech or interview from Warsh before June is now the highest-leverage catalyst on the calendar.
May 27/28 PCE — the print that locks in the H2 narrative
Core PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) lands two weeks out and will set the next FOMC’s tone.
With both CPI hot and PPI services running +1.2%, the pipeline points to a firm PCE print — not the soft read that would revive rate-cut bets.
Cool PCE = first real wedge against higher-for-longer narrative since March. Hot PCE = Goldman’s December-2026 cut call gets pushed further out, and rate-HIKE odds keep climbing.
Next: Powell Term Ends — Warsh Takes Office 2d
Markets
Stocks · cross-asset sentiment
S&P 500
7,444
+0.6%
Nasdaq
26,402
+1.2%
Dow
49,693
-0.1%
VIX
Stock Market Fear
18
Calm
F&G
Crypto Fear & Greed
42
Fear
Risk Dashboard
6 of 10 thresholds healthy · 1 showing stress
2.82%
Healthytrigger 4.50%
6 healthy · 3 elevated · 1 triggered
Bitcoin
Price · trend · valuation · flows
BTC vs 200-Day Avg
-3.6%
BTC Price
$79,278
200-Day Avg Price
$82,269
200-day Simple Moving Average — Bitcoin’s average price over the last 200 days. Acts as a long-term trend line. BTC trading below the SMA = in a downtrend. A significant stretch above = parabolic move, historically a cycle-top warning.
Bitcoin · Demand
ETF Flows · 5d netCoinGlass
$-574MOutflows
May 06May 12
Mixed signals across the run
Bitcoin · Cycle Position
AccumEarlyLateDistBear
Early Bull · MVRV-Z 0.93
Bitcoin is undervalued relative to what holders collectively paid, and most holders are sitting on modest profit but not euphoria. Historically, these conditions favor steady DCA.
On-Chain Valuation
MVRV-Z
Undervalued
0.93
Compares Bitcoin’s market price to what holders collectively paid. Below 0 = historically cheap; higher readings = relatively expensive. Pre-2024 cycles topped near MVRV-Z 7–8; the 2025 cycle top reached only ~2.5, suggesting the ETF era may have compressed peaks.
NUPL
In profit
0.33
Net Unrealized Profit / Loss — how much profit holders are sitting on. Below 0 = underwater; higher readings = euphoric greed. Pre-2024 cycles peaked near 0.75; the 2025 cycle reached only ~0.56, suggesting the ETF era may have compressed peaks.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Price · altseason rotation indicator
Ethereum
$2,252
-1.5%
24h
ETH / BTC
0.0284
Bitcoin-led market
Altcoin Rotation
Bitcoin-led market — altcoins have not yet rotated
Dual Fear - Alert
INACTIVE
VIX18
F&G42
Show how this indicator works ↓
When stock market fear and crypto fear spike at the same time, this lights up green — consider increasing your DCA. It's rare, and historically one of the best times to invest.
Score Breakdown
The daily score combines 13 indicators on a −100 to +100 scale, with 6 safety overrides monitoring for extremes. Think of it like a baseball batting average — a +30 is meaningful, the same way that a .300 batting average is great. A +60 is .400 territory — those are the rare readings. Most scores land between −30 and +30.
Show indicator-by-indicator scoring ↓
ECONOMY
+5Credit strong (OAS 2.82%)BULLISH
+5M2 growing (+2.6%)BULLISH
+3Weak dollar (DXY 98.5)BULLISH
+2Employment stable (0.13)BULLISH
+1Manufacturing positive (52.7%)BULLISH
MARKET SENTIMENT
-8BTC ETF outflows ($-574M)BEARISH
CRYPTO
+5MVRV undervalued (0.93)BULLISH
+1Stablecoin growing (+1.5%)BULLISH
— 5 indicators neutral (VIX calm, Services steady, BTC near 200-day avg, Sentiment neutral, Dual Fear inactive)
+22 bullish
+
-8 bearish
=
+14
How the engine works, override triggers, and score thresholds:
Override Triggers
0 of 6
Show all override checks ↓
Credit crisis
Clear
Oil shock
Clear
Euphoria composite
Clear
VIX pause zone
Clear
VIX capitulation
Clear
Dual capitulation
Clear
All clear — score-based signal active
HUD DCA™
Score History
42d
Show score chart and trend detail ↓
Neutral zone · 42 days recorded
▼ -9
Mar 30Today
Chart color: green = trending up, blue = pulling back (still positive), red = trending into negative territory.
Bottom Line
Signals are balanced — no strong edge either way. Standard DCA; no reason to change.
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This is NOT financial advice. HUD DCA™ provides market condition assessments for informational and educational purposes only. HUD DCA™ LLC is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or commodity trading advisor. All historical results are hypothetical, backtested with the benefit of hindsight, and do not represent actual trading. Model parameters were optimized using historical data. Out-of-sample validation (2017–2019) was performed on data not used during calibration. Digital assets are highly volatile and involve substantial risk of total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.