Two hot inflation prints down, one Fed decision to go. With the data in, markets are calm — oil's slid to an eight-week low on Iran-deal hopes and stock-market fear keeps easing — and the engine holds NEUTRAL (+5). The week now turns on the Fed's June 17 rate decision and dot plot.
The committee of twelve that replaced the gold standard, how it sets interest rates, and why traders watch its calendar so closely.
All ten risk thresholds read healthy today (see the 10-institional dashboard below) — credit, the Sahm rule, oil, the dollar, both ISM readings, volatility, BTC ETF flows and dominance, and stablecoins.
Brent oil: ~$71 (Jul 1) → $101 today, about +41% in three weeks.
Corporate Credit is healthy (OAS 2.69%) | VIX is calm (17) | Employment stable (0.07)