June 2, 2026
Bitcoin dropped another 5% today — yet stocks are calm and the economy just hit a four-year high. The whole story is an institutional exit from Bitcoin ETFs, now nearly $2 billion in five...
Today’s Signal · Jun 2
+10
▼ -10 from yesterday
NEUTRAL
−100
+100
Standard DCA — no change needed
Signals are balanced — no strong edge either way. Standard DCA; no reason to change.
What moved today
BTC71,160→67,546BTC ETF flows$-1.5B→$-1.9BF&G29→23
Today's Analysis
Positive
The economy holds firm as Bitcoin gets cheaper
- Stocks barely moved today — the S&P 500 and Dow even edged higher — and Wall Street’s fear gauge (the VIX) is low and calm. With corporate credit healthy and Monday’s factory survey at a four-year high, the wider economy hasn’t deteriorated. Today’s drop is specific to crypto, not a warning from the broader market.
- The pullback also left Bitcoin cheaper: it now sits roughly 15% below its 200-day average price, with the MVRV gauge (price versus what holders paid) still under its “fairly valued” line and crypto sentiment in extreme fear. Historically, that is the kind of discount patient buyers look for.
Risks
Relentless ETF outflows are driving Bitcoin lower
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs — the regulated funds (BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and peers) that big institutions use to hold Bitcoin — have now bled nearly $2 billion over five trading days, and the selling carried into today’s roughly 5% drop. It is the engine’s one red signal, and it has not let up.
- Bitcoin is now down about 17% over the past month — steep enough that the downward momentum is itself a caution. A cheap asset can keep getting cheaper, which is why today nets out to no strong edge rather than a clear buy, even with Bitcoin on sale.
Upcoming
Tomorrow’s services data is the week’s bigger test
- ISM Services — the services-sector counterpart to Monday’s factory survey — covers about 70% of the US economy, so tomorrow’s May reading (10 AM ET) tends to move markets more than the manufacturing number does. A soft print would feed the current risk-off mood; a firm one could help steady it.
- The May jobs report follows Friday at 8:30 AM ET. The Sahm Rule — a recession tripwire that fires when unemployment rises sharply — is still low and calm at 0.13, so only a clear jobs miss would meaningfully change the bigger picture.
Next: ISM Services PMI (May) TOMORROW
Bitcoin
Price · trend · valuation · flows
Show advanced Bitcoin metrics ↓ 200D · ETF · Cycle · On-Chain
BTC vs 200-Day Avg
-14.8%
BTC Price
$67,546
200-Day Avg Price
$79,246
200-day Simple Moving Average — Bitcoin’s average price over the last 200 days. Acts as a long-term trend line. BTC trading below the SMA = in a downtrend. A significant stretch above = parabolic move, historically a cycle-top warning.
Bitcoin · Demand
ETF Flows · 5d netCoinGlass
$-1.9BOutflows
May 26Jun 01
Sustained outflows across the run
Bitcoin · Cycle Position
AccumEarlyLateDistBear
Early Bull · MVRV-Z 0.67
Bitcoin is undervalued relative to what holders collectively paid, and most holders are sitting on modest profit but not euphoria. Historically, these conditions favor steady DCA.
On-Chain Valuation
MVRV-Z
Undervalued
0.67
Compares Bitcoin’s market price to what holders collectively paid. Below 0 = historically cheap; higher readings = relatively expensive. Pre-2024 cycles topped near MVRV-Z 7–8; the 2025 cycle top reached only ~2.5, suggesting the ETF era may have compressed peaks.
NUPL
In profit
0.25
Net Unrealized Profit / Loss — how much profit holders are sitting on. Below 0 = underwater; higher readings = euphoric greed. Pre-2024 cycles peaked near 0.75; the 2025 cycle reached only ~0.56, suggesting the ETF era may have compressed peaks.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Price · altseason rotation indicator
Ethereum
$1,900
-4.8%
24h
ETH / BTC
0.0281
Bitcoin-led market
Altcoin Rotation
Bitcoin-led market — altcoins have not yet rotated
Markets
Stocks · cross-asset sentiment
S&P 500
7,610
+0.1%
Nasdaq
27,094
—
Dow
51,308
+0.4%
VIX
Stock Market Fear
16
Calm
F&G
Crypto Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
Risk Dashboard
6 of 10 thresholds healthy · 1 showing stress
Show all 9 indicators ↓ 6 healthy · 3 elevated · 1 triggered
2.72%
Healthytrigger 4.50%
Dual Fear - Alert
INACTIVE
VIX16
F&G23
Show how this indicator works ↓
When stock market fear and crypto fear spike at the same time, this lights up green — consider increasing your DCA. It's rare, and historically one of the best times to invest.
Score Breakdown
The daily score combines 13 indicators on a −100 to +100 scale, with 6 safety overrides monitoring for extremes. Think of it like a baseball batting average — a +30 is meaningful, the same way that a .300 batting average is great. A +60 is .400 territory — those are the rare readings. Most scores land between −30 and +30.
Show indicator-by-indicator scoring ↓
ECONOMY
+5Credit strong (OAS 2.72%)BULLISH
+5M2 growing (+2.1%)BULLISH
+3Weak dollar (DXY 99.2)BULLISH
+2Employment stable (0.13)BULLISH
+1Manufacturing positive (54.0%)BULLISH
MARKET SENTIMENT
-8BTC ETF outflows ($-1.9B)BEARISH
+7High fear (Fear & Greed 23)BULLISH
CRYPTO
-1030-day drawdown (-17%)BEARISH
+5MVRV undervalued (0.67)BULLISH
— 5 indicators neutral (VIX calm, Services steady, BTC near 200-day avg, Dual Fear inactive, Stablecoin flat)
+28 bullish
+
-18 bearish
=
+10
How the engine works, override triggers, and score thresholds:
Override Triggers
0 of 6
Show all override checks ↓
Credit crisis
Clear
Oil shock
Clear
Euphoria composite
Clear
VIX pause zone
Clear
VIX capitulation
Clear
Dual capitulation
Clear
All clear — score-based signal active
HUD DCA™
Score History
61d
Show score chart and trend detail ↓
Neutral zone · 61 days recorded
▼ -10
Mar 30Today
Chart color: green = trending up, blue = pulling back (still positive), red = trending into negative territory.
Bottom Line
Signals are balanced — no strong edge either way. Standard DCA; no reason to change.
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How the engine works, glossary, backtests, and more.
This is NOT financial advice. HUD DCA™ provides market condition assessments for informational and educational purposes only. HUD DCA™ LLC is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or commodity trading advisor. All historical results are hypothetical, backtested with the benefit of hindsight, and do not represent actual trading. Model parameters were optimized using historical data. Out-of-sample validation (2017–2019) was performed on data not used during calibration. Digital assets are highly volatile and involve substantial risk of total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.