May 14, 2026
Six weeks ago BTC traded $66,246 — 25.8% below its 200-day price trend. Today: $81,357, just 0.8% below. The engine flagged FAVORABLE then; the discount...
Today’s Signal · May 14
+19
▲ +5 from yesterday
Pause DCA
WAIT FORPowell Term Ends — Warsh Takes Office · Tomorrow
−100
+100
Powell
Wait for the data.
Major macro data releases historically cause significant crypto price volatility.
What moved today
BTC79,221→81,421BTC ETF flows$-574M→$-1.3BF&G42→34
Today's Analysis
Positive
BTC has nearly closed the 200-day price trend gap
- Six weeks ago BTC traded around $66,246, sitting 25.8% below its 200-day price average. Today: 0.8% below ($82,104).
- The score moved +47 → +19 because the discount the engine flagged has been captured — by design.
- BTC closed +2.5% to $81,357. Whether that was the cycle low won’t be confirmable for months.
Risks
Largest BTC ETF outflow of the cycle — price rose anyway
- BTC ETFs saw $-1.25B in outflows today, the biggest single-day outflow in 43 days of live tracking.
- Flow regime flipped fast: +$5.6B inflows May 5-8 → $-1.8B outflows May 13-14. Spot still rallied +2.5% — non-ETF buyers absorbing.
- The Crypto Fear & Greed index dropped 8 points to 34, while the stock market’s fear gauge (VIX) barely moved — crypto sentiment decoupling from equities post-PPI report.
Upcoming
Warsh sworn in tomorrow — six-week policy vacuum until the next June FOMC meeting
- Powell’s term ends Friday; Warsh takes office as 17th Fed Chair. No FOMC until June — Warsh interviews become the highest-leverage catalyst on the calendar.
- May 27/28 Core PCE: with CPI and PPI reports both hot, the pipeline points to a firm print.
Next: Powell Term Ends — Warsh Takes Office 1d
Bitcoin
Price · trend · valuation · flows
Show advanced Bitcoin metrics ↓ 200D · ETF · Cycle · On-Chain
BTC vs 200-Day Avg
-0.8%
BTC Price
$81,421
200-Day Avg Price
$82,104
200-day Simple Moving Average — Bitcoin’s average price over the last 200 days. Acts as a long-term trend line. BTC trading below the SMA = in a downtrend. A significant stretch above = parabolic move, historically a cycle-top warning.
Bitcoin · Demand
ETF Flows · 5d netCoinGlass
$-1.3BOutflows
May 07May 13
Mixed signals across the run
Bitcoin · Cycle Position
AccumEarlyLateDistBear
Early Bull · MVRV-Z 0.93
MVRV 0.93 suggests Bitcoin is well inside the lower half of its market cycle.
On-Chain Valuation
MVRV-Z
Undervalued
0.93
Compares Bitcoin’s market price to what holders collectively paid. Below 0 = historically cheap; higher readings = relatively expensive. Pre-2024 cycles topped near MVRV-Z 7–8; the 2025 cycle top reached only ~2.5, suggesting the ETF era may have compressed peaks.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Price · altseason rotation indicator
Ethereum
$2,296
+2.0%
24h
ETH / BTC
0.0282
Bitcoin-led market
Altcoin Rotation
Bitcoin-led market — altcoins have not yet rotated
Markets
Stocks · cross-asset sentiment
S&P 500
7,501
+0.8%
Nasdaq
26,635
+0.9%
Dow
50,063
+0.7%
VIX
Stock Market Fear
17
Calm
F&G
Crypto Fear & Greed
34
Fear
Risk Dashboard
6 of 10 thresholds healthy · 1 showing stress
Show all 9 indicators ↓ OAS · Sahm · Brent · VIX · ISM · DXY · BTC
2.82%
Healthytrigger 4.50%
6 healthy · 3 elevated · 1 triggered
Dual Fear - Alert
INACTIVE
VIX17
F&G34
Show how this indicator works ↓
When stock market fear and crypto fear spike at the same time, this lights up green — consider increasing your DCA. It's rare, and historically one of the best times to invest.
Score Breakdown
The daily score combines 13 indicators on a −100 to +100 scale, with 6 safety overrides monitoring for extremes. Think of it like a baseball batting average — a +30 is meaningful, the same way that a .300 batting average is great. A +60 is .400 territory — those are the rare readings. Most scores land between −30 and +30.
Show indicator-by-indicator scoring ↓
ECONOMY
+5Credit strong (OAS 2.82%)BULLISH
+5M2 growing (+2.6%)BULLISH
+3Weak dollar (DXY 98.9)BULLISH
+2Employment stable (0.13)BULLISH
+1Manufacturing positive (52.7%)BULLISH
MARKET SENTIMENT
-8BTC ETF outflows ($-1.3B)BEARISH
+5Fear zone (Fear & Greed 34)BULLISH
CRYPTO
+5MVRV undervalued (0.93)BULLISH
+1Stablecoin growing (+1.3%)BULLISH
— 4 indicators neutral (VIX calm, Services steady, BTC near 200-day avg, Dual Fear inactive)
+27 bullish
+
-8 bearish
=
+19
How the engine works, override triggers, and score thresholds:
Override Triggers
0 of 6
Show all override checks ↓
Credit crisis
Clear
Oil shock
Clear
Euphoria composite
Clear
VIX pause zone
Clear
VIX capitulation
Clear
Dual capitulation
Clear
All clear — score-based signal active
HUD DCA™
Score History
43d
Show score chart and trend detail ↓
Favorable zone · 43 days recorded
▲ +5
Mar 30Today
Chart color: green = trending up, blue = pulling back (still positive), red = trending into negative territory.
Bottom Line
Engine paused ahead of Powell Term Ends — Warsh Takes Office. Standard DCA resumes once the event clears.
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How the engine works, glossary, backtests, and more.
This is NOT financial advice. HUD DCA™ provides market condition assessments for informational and educational purposes only. HUD DCA™ LLC is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or commodity trading advisor. All historical results are hypothetical, backtested with the benefit of hindsight, and do not represent actual trading. Model parameters were optimized using historical data. Out-of-sample validation (2017–2019) was performed on data not used during calibration. Digital assets are highly volatile and involve substantial risk of total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.