May 15, 2026
BTC price rejected at the 200-day SMA for the fifth time this month after running above $81K on the CLARITY Act news, then reversing. Warsh sworn in as 17th Fed Chair — three weeks of latitude before the FOMC blackout.
Today’s Signal · May 15
+14
▼ -5 from yesterday
Maintain DCA
NEUTRAL
−100
+100
Standard DCA — no change needed
Signals are balanced — no strong edge either way. Standard DCA; no reason to change.
What moved today
BTC81,421→78,985BTC ETF flows$-1.3B→$-851MF&G34→43
Today's Analysis
Positive
BTC rejected at the 200-day for the fifth time this month
- BTC ran higher this morning on the Senate Banking Committee’s 15-9 CLARITY Act vote, then reversed sharply as bond yields and inflation worries hit. Five 200-day SMA tests this month, five rejections.
- The engine’s six-week call still holds: it flagged FAVORABLE near $66K in early April; the score has since compressed from +47 into the mid-teens as that discount got captured.
Risks
Brutal macro setup on day one for the new Fed Chair
- April CPI ran 3.8% (highest since May 2023), PPI 6%. Markets repriced from 70% odds of a June hold to zero cuts all year — Polymarket now 62% on no cuts in 2026.
- BTC ETFs printed $-851M over the last 5 days, with May 13 alone at $-635M — the biggest single-day outflow since January 29. Institutional flow regime has fully inverted this week.
Upcoming
Warsh’s three weeks of latitude before the FOMC blackout
- Warsh sworn in today. Public debut: June 17 FOMC presser. Between now and the ~June 6 blackout, any speech becomes the highest-leverage catalyst — or his deliberate silence does. First Fed Chair with disclosed crypto exposure (Solana, dYdX, Optimism, Flashnet); pledged to divest.
- CLARITY Act floor vote next — 60 votes needed, White House targets ~July 4 signing. Polymarket jumped mid-40s → 73% on 2026 passage after yesterday’s 15-9 committee vote.
Next: PCE (Apr) + GDP Q1 Second 13d
Bitcoin
Price · trend · valuation · flows
Show advanced Bitcoin metrics ↓ 200D · ETF · Cycle · On-Chain
BTC vs 200-Day Avg
-3.6%
BTC Price
$78,985
200-Day Avg Price
$81,927
200-day Simple Moving Average — Bitcoin’s average price over the last 200 days. Acts as a long-term trend line. BTC trading below the SMA = in a downtrend. A significant stretch above = parabolic move, historically a cycle-top warning.
Bitcoin · Demand
ETF Flows · 5d netCoinGlass
$-851MOutflows
May 08May 14
Mixed signals across the run
Bitcoin · Cycle Position
AccumEarlyLateDistBear
Early Bull · MVRV-Z 0.85
Bitcoin is undervalued relative to what holders collectively paid, and most holders are sitting on modest profit but not euphoria. Historically, these conditions favor steady DCA.
On-Chain Valuation
MVRV-Z
Undervalued
0.85
Compares Bitcoin’s market price to what holders collectively paid. Below 0 = historically cheap; higher readings = relatively expensive. Pre-2024 cycles topped near MVRV-Z 7–8; the 2025 cycle top reached only ~2.5, suggesting the ETF era may have compressed peaks.
NUPL
In profit
0.34
Net Unrealized Profit / Loss — how much profit holders are sitting on. Below 0 = underwater; higher readings = euphoric greed. Pre-2024 cycles peaked near 0.75; the 2025 cycle reached only ~0.56, suggesting the ETF era may have compressed peaks.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Price · altseason rotation indicator
Ethereum
$2,219
-3.4%
24h
ETH / BTC
0.0281
Bitcoin-led market
Altcoin Rotation
Bitcoin-led market — altcoins have not yet rotated
Markets
Stocks · cross-asset sentiment
S&P 500
7,408
-1.2%
Nasdaq
26,225
-1.5%
Dow
49,526
-1.1%
VIX
Stock Market Fear
18
Calm
F&G
Crypto Fear & Greed
43
Fear
Risk Dashboard
6 of 10 thresholds healthy · 1 showing stress
Show all 9 indicators ↓ OAS · Sahm · Brent · VIX · ISM · DXY · BTC
2.76%
Healthytrigger 4.50%
6 healthy · 3 elevated · 1 triggered
Dual Fear - Alert
INACTIVE
VIX18
F&G43
Show how this indicator works ↓
When stock market fear and crypto fear spike at the same time, this lights up green — consider increasing your DCA. It's rare, and historically one of the best times to invest.
Score Breakdown
The daily score combines 13 indicators on a −100 to +100 scale, with 6 safety overrides monitoring for extremes. Think of it like a baseball batting average — a +30 is meaningful, the same way that a .300 batting average is great. A +60 is .400 territory — those are the rare readings. Most scores land between −30 and +30.
Show indicator-by-indicator scoring ↓
ECONOMY
+5Credit strong (OAS 2.76%)BULLISH
+5M2 growing (+2.6%)BULLISH
+3Weak dollar (DXY 99.3)BULLISH
+2Employment stable (0.13)BULLISH
+1Manufacturing positive (52.7%)BULLISH
MARKET SENTIMENT
-8BTC ETF outflows ($-851M)BEARISH
CRYPTO
+5MVRV undervalued (0.85)BULLISH
+1Stablecoin growing (+1.6%)BULLISH
— 5 indicators neutral (VIX calm, Services steady, BTC near 200-day avg, Sentiment neutral, Dual Fear inactive)
+22 bullish
+
-8 bearish
=
+14
How the engine works, override triggers, and score thresholds:
Override Triggers
0 of 6
Show all override checks ↓
Credit crisis
Clear
Oil shock
Clear
Euphoria composite
Clear
VIX pause zone
Clear
VIX capitulation
Clear
Dual capitulation
Clear
All clear — score-based signal active
HUD DCA™
Score History
44d
Show score chart and trend detail ↓
Neutral zone · 44 days recorded
▼ -5
Mar 30Today
Chart color: green = trending up, blue = pulling back (still positive), red = trending into negative territory.
Bottom Line
Signals are balanced — no strong edge either way. Standard DCA; no reason to change.
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This is NOT financial advice. HUD DCA™ provides market condition assessments for informational and educational purposes only. HUD DCA™ LLC is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or commodity trading advisor. All historical results are hypothetical, backtested with the benefit of hindsight, and do not represent actual trading. Model parameters were optimized using historical data. Out-of-sample validation (2017–2019) was performed on data not used during calibration. Digital assets are highly volatile and involve substantial risk of total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.