May 16, 2026
Inflation isn't measured only once a month. It's measured three times. Today's report explains CPI, PPI, and PCE in 30 seconds. Score back to +19 FAVORABLE.
Today’s Signal · May 16
+19
▲ +5 from yesterday
Continue DCA
FAVORABLE
−100
+100
Conditions favor accumulation
Conditions are modestly favorable. Standard DCA.
What moved today
BTC78,985→78,264BTC ETF flows$-851M→$-995MF&G43→31
Today's Analysis
Positive
Engine flips back to FAVORABLE on deep crowd fear
- Score rebounded +14 → +19 as Crypto Fear & Greed dropped 12 points to 31 — the engine’s patient-buyer trigger. The setup it flagged near $66K in April is back: deep fear, undervaluation, weak dollar.
Risks
ETF outflows kept bleeding into the weekend
- BTC ETFs printed $-995M over the last 5 days — outflows worsened, not recovered. The macro overhang (CPI 3.8%, PPI 6%, Polymarket 62% on zero 2026 cuts) is still binding.
Upcoming
Two macro tests in the next two weeks
- PCE prints May 28 — the third inflation reading for April. Same period as CPI and PPI, just measured differently. The Fed uses PCE as its official 2% target, so it’s the print that actually shapes rate decisions.
- CLARITY Act floor vote also pending — 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster, White House targets ~July 4 signing. Polymarket 73% on 2026 passage after the 15-9 committee advance.
Next: PCE (Apr) + GDP Q1 Second 12d
Bitcoin
Price · trend · valuation · flows
Show advanced Bitcoin metrics ↓ 200D · ETF · Cycle · On-Chain
BTC vs 200-Day Avg
-4.3%
BTC Price
$78,264
200-Day Avg Price
$81,753
200-day Simple Moving Average — Bitcoin’s average price over the last 200 days. Acts as a long-term trend line. BTC trading below the SMA = in a downtrend. A significant stretch above = parabolic move, historically a cycle-top warning.
Bitcoin · Demand
ETF Flows · 5d netCoinGlass
$-995MOutflows
May 11May 15
Mixed signals across the run
Bitcoin · Cycle Position
AccumEarlyLateDistBear
Early Bull · MVRV-Z 0.91
Bitcoin is undervalued relative to what holders collectively paid, and most holders are sitting on modest profit but not euphoria. Historically, these conditions favor steady DCA.
On-Chain Valuation
MVRV-Z
Undervalued
0.91
Compares Bitcoin’s market price to what holders collectively paid. Below 0 = historically cheap; higher readings = relatively expensive. Pre-2024 cycles topped near MVRV-Z 7–8; the 2025 cycle top reached only ~2.5, suggesting the ETF era may have compressed peaks.
NUPL
In profit
0.32
Net Unrealized Profit / Loss — how much profit holders are sitting on. Below 0 = underwater; higher readings = euphoric greed. Pre-2024 cycles peaked near 0.75; the 2025 cycle reached only ~0.56, suggesting the ETF era may have compressed peaks.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Price · altseason rotation indicator
Ethereum
$2,181
-1.8%
24h
ETH / BTC
0.0279
Bitcoin-led market
Altcoin Rotation
Bitcoin-led market — altcoins have not yet rotated
Markets
Stocks · cross-asset sentiment
S&P 500
7,408
-1.2%
Nasdaq
26,225
-1.5%
Dow
49,526
-1.1%
VIX
Stock Market Fear
18
Calm
F&G
Crypto Fear & Greed
31
Fear
Risk Dashboard
6 of 10 thresholds healthy · 1 showing stress
Show all 9 indicators ↓ OAS · Sahm · Brent · VIX · ISM · DXY · BTC
2.76%
Healthytrigger 4.50%
6 healthy · 3 elevated · 1 triggered
Dual Fear - Alert
INACTIVE
VIX18
F&G31
Show how this indicator works ↓
When stock market fear and crypto fear spike at the same time, this lights up green — consider increasing your DCA. It's rare, and historically one of the best times to invest.
Score Breakdown
The daily score combines 13 indicators on a −100 to +100 scale, with 6 safety overrides monitoring for extremes. Think of it like a baseball batting average — a +30 is meaningful, the same way that a .300 batting average is great. A +60 is .400 territory — those are the rare readings. Most scores land between −30 and +30.
Show indicator-by-indicator scoring ↓
ECONOMY
+5Credit strong (OAS 2.76%)BULLISH
+5M2 growing (+2.6%)BULLISH
+3Weak dollar (DXY 99.3)BULLISH
+2Employment stable (0.13)BULLISH
+1Manufacturing positive (52.7%)BULLISH
MARKET SENTIMENT
-8BTC ETF outflows ($-995M)BEARISH
+5Fear zone (Fear & Greed 31)BULLISH
CRYPTO
+5MVRV undervalued (0.91)BULLISH
+1Stablecoin growing (+0.7%)BULLISH
— 4 indicators neutral (VIX calm, Services steady, BTC near 200-day avg, Dual Fear inactive)
+27 bullish
+
-8 bearish
=
+19
How the engine works, override triggers, and score thresholds:
Override Triggers
0 of 6
Show all override checks ↓
Credit crisis
Clear
Oil shock
Clear
Euphoria composite
Clear
VIX pause zone
Clear
VIX capitulation
Clear
Dual capitulation
Clear
All clear — score-based signal active
HUD DCA™
Score History
45d
Show score chart and trend detail ↓
Favorable zone · 45 days recorded
▲ +5
Mar 30Today
Chart color: green = trending up, blue = pulling back (still positive), red = trending into negative territory.
Bottom Line
Conditions are modestly favorable. Standard DCA.
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How the engine works, glossary, backtests, and more.
This is NOT financial advice. HUD DCA™ provides market condition assessments for informational and educational purposes only. HUD DCA™ LLC is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or commodity trading advisor. All historical results are hypothetical, backtested with the benefit of hindsight, and do not represent actual trading. Model parameters were optimized using historical data. Out-of-sample validation (2017–2019) was performed on data not used during calibration. Digital assets are highly volatile and involve substantial risk of total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.