May 20, 2026
Oil yellow flag cleared today. Score back to FAVORABLE. But Bitcoin's on-chain valuation keeps slipping (0.78, cheapest since May 1) and BTC ETF outflows widened to -$1.8B
Today’s Signal · May 20
+21
▲ +5 from yesterday
Continue DCA
FAVORABLE
−100
+100
Conditions favor accumulation
Conditions are modestly favorable. Standard DCA.
What moved today
BTC76,613→77,376BTC ETF flows$-1.7B→$-1.8BBrent$111→$105
Today's Analysis
Positive
Oil shock cleared, Bitcoin valuation cheapens further
- Brent crude fell from $111 back to $105 today, lifting the engine’s oil-price risk row from yellow back to green and reversing yesterday’s full -5 weight. Score recovered from mid-teens to the low +20s — same bullish/bearish balance as Monday. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is now trading below the average price holders collectively paid — its on-chain valuation slipped to 0.78, the lowest reading since May 1.
Risks
BTC ETF outflow streak hasn’t broken
- BTC ETF outflows widened a fraction to -$1.8B over five days. The 5-day window has now been negative for six consecutive trading sessions. Until that streak breaks, the institutional-demand picture stays one-sided — even while macro risk eased today.
Upcoming
PCE inflation May 28 — the Fed’s official gauge
- PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) is the Federal Reserve’s official inflation target — the gauge that actually moves rate-cut odds. Next week’s print covers April, the same period as last week’s hot consumer-price and producer-price reports. A hot PCE would lock in the “no rate cuts in 2026” pricing markets just adopted; a cool print would be the first crack in that view.
Next: PCE (Apr) + GDP Q1 Second 8d
Bitcoin
Price · trend · valuation · flows
Show advanced Bitcoin metrics ↓ 200D · ETF · Cycle · On-Chain
BTC vs 200-Day Avg
-4.6%
BTC Price
$77,376
200-Day Avg Price
$81,105
200-day Simple Moving Average — Bitcoin’s average price over the last 200 days. Acts as a long-term trend line. BTC trading below the SMA = in a downtrend. A significant stretch above = parabolic move, historically a cycle-top warning.
Bitcoin · Demand
ETF Flows · 5d netCoinGlass
$-1.8BOutflows
May 13May 19
Mixed signals across the run
Bitcoin · Cycle Position
AccumEarlyLateDistBear
Early Bull · MVRV-Z 0.78
Bitcoin is undervalued relative to what holders collectively paid, and most holders are sitting on modest profit but not euphoria. Historically, these conditions favor steady DCA.
On-Chain Valuation
MVRV-Z
Undervalued
0.78
Compares Bitcoin’s market price to what holders collectively paid. Below 0 = historically cheap; higher readings = relatively expensive. Pre-2024 cycles topped near MVRV-Z 7–8; the 2025 cycle top reached only ~2.5, suggesting the ETF era may have compressed peaks.
NUPL
In profit
0.30
Net Unrealized Profit / Loss — how much profit holders are sitting on. Below 0 = underwater; higher readings = euphoric greed. Pre-2024 cycles peaked near 0.75; the 2025 cycle reached only ~0.56, suggesting the ETF era may have compressed peaks.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Price · altseason rotation indicator
Ethereum
$2,125
+1.0%
24h
ETH / BTC
0.0275
Bitcoin-led market
Altcoin Rotation
Bitcoin-led market — altcoins have not yet rotated
Markets
Stocks · cross-asset sentiment
S&P 500
7,433
+1.1%
Nasdaq
26,270
+1.5%
Dow
50,009
+1.3%
VIX
Stock Market Fear
17
Calm
F&G
Crypto Fear & Greed
27
Fear
Risk Dashboard
6 of 10 thresholds healthy · 1 showing stress
Show all 9 indicators ↓ OAS · Sahm · Brent · VIX · ISM · DXY · BTC
2.86%
Healthytrigger 4.50%
6 healthy · 3 elevated · 1 triggered
Dual Fear - Alert
INACTIVE
VIX17
F&G27
Show how this indicator works ↓
When stock market fear and crypto fear spike at the same time, this lights up green — consider increasing your DCA. It's rare, and historically one of the best times to invest.
Score Breakdown
The daily score combines 13 indicators on a −100 to +100 scale, with 6 safety overrides monitoring for extremes. Think of it like a baseball batting average — a +30 is meaningful, the same way that a .300 batting average is great. A +60 is .400 territory — those are the rare readings. Most scores land between −30 and +30.
Show indicator-by-indicator scoring ↓
ECONOMY
+5Credit strong (OAS 2.86%)BULLISH
+5M2 growing (+2.6%)BULLISH
+3Weak dollar (DXY 99.1)BULLISH
+2Employment stable (0.13)BULLISH
+1Manufacturing positive (52.7%)BULLISH
MARKET SENTIMENT
-8BTC ETF outflows ($-1.8B)BEARISH
+7High fear (Fear & Greed 27)BULLISH
CRYPTO
+5MVRV undervalued (0.78)BULLISH
+1Stablecoin growing (+0.4%)BULLISH
— 4 indicators neutral (VIX calm, Services steady, BTC near 200-day avg, Dual Fear inactive)
+29 bullish
+
-8 bearish
=
+21
How the engine works, override triggers, and score thresholds:
Override Triggers
0 of 6
Show all override checks ↓
Credit crisis
Clear
Oil shock
Clear
Euphoria composite
Clear
VIX pause zone
Clear
VIX capitulation
Clear
Dual capitulation
Clear
All clear — score-based signal active
HUD DCA™
Score History
49d
Show score chart and trend detail ↓
Favorable zone · 49 days recorded
▲ +5
Mar 30Today
Chart color: green = trending up, blue = pulling back (still positive), red = trending into negative territory.
Bottom Line
Conditions are modestly favorable. Standard DCA.
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This is NOT financial advice. HUD DCA™ provides market condition assessments for informational and educational purposes only. HUD DCA™ LLC is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or commodity trading advisor. All historical results are hypothetical, backtested with the benefit of hindsight, and do not represent actual trading. Model parameters were optimized using historical data. Out-of-sample validation (2017–2019) was performed on data not used during calibration. Digital assets are highly volatile and involve substantial risk of total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.