May 30, 2026
Three things to watch this weekend: Bitcoin is historically cheap (MVRV at a five-week low), CME Group's regulated Bitcoin futures went 24/7 for the first time, and the engine cleared back to FAVORABLE...
Today’s Signal · May 30
+20
▼ -1 from yesterday
Continue DCA
FAVORABLE
−100
+100
Conditions favor accumulation
Conditions are modestly favorable. Standard DCA.
What moved today
BTC MVRV0.69→0.66US Money Supply growth1.8%→2.1%
Today's Analysis
Positive
Patient-buyer setup at its strongest in five weeks
- Bitcoin is historically cheap right now. The engine’s main valuation gauge — BTC MVRV, which compares Bitcoin’s price to what holders actually paid — dropped to 0.66 today, the lowest in five weeks. Combined with Extreme Fear among crypto traders (Fear & Greed at 23) and a weak US dollar, the score sits in the low +20s with conditions favoring accumulation.
Risks
Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows keep widening
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs — the regulated funds (BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and others) that big institutions use to hold BTC — saw $1.5 billion in net outflows over the last five trading days, up from about $0.9 billion Wednesday. As long as institutions keep selling at this pace, the engine’s only red signal stays at full weight.
Upcoming
Bitcoin’s first gap-free futures weekend, plus two macro reports
- CME Group went 24/7 Friday. CME Group runs the largest US futures exchange (think of it as Wall Street’s version of a regulated futures venue), and until Friday their Bitcoin futures closed every weekend. The Sunday-night reopening often created sharp price gaps when traders had no way to react to weekend news. This is the first weekend without that gap — watch for less weekend volatility and volume migrating away from offshore exchanges like Binance.
- Two US economic surveys land next week. ISM Manufacturing prints Monday at 10 AM ET and ISM Services Wednesday at 10 AM ET. ISM stands for Institute for Supply Management — they survey businesses on whether activity is growing (a reading above 50) or shrinking (below 50). Services covers about 70% of the US economy, so it’s the bigger market mover, and the engine pauses ahead of it Wednesday.
Next: ISM Manufacturing PMI (May) 2d
Bitcoin
Price · trend · valuation · flows
Show advanced Bitcoin metrics ↓ 200D · ETF · Cycle · On-Chain
BTC vs 200-Day Avg
-7.3%
BTC Price
$73,877
200-Day Avg Price
$79,664
200-day Simple Moving Average — Bitcoin’s average price over the last 200 days. Acts as a long-term trend line. BTC trading below the SMA = in a downtrend. A significant stretch above = parabolic move, historically a cycle-top warning.
Bitcoin · Demand
ETF Flows · 5d netCoinGlass
$-1.5BOutflows
May 22May 29
Sustained outflows across the run
Bitcoin · Cycle Position
AccumEarlyLateDistBear
Early Bull · MVRV-Z 0.66
Bitcoin is undervalued relative to what holders collectively paid, and most holders are sitting on modest profit but not euphoria. Historically, these conditions favor steady DCA.
On-Chain Valuation
MVRV-Z
Undervalued
0.66
Compares Bitcoin’s market price to what holders collectively paid. Below 0 = historically cheap; higher readings = relatively expensive. Pre-2024 cycles topped near MVRV-Z 7–8; the 2025 cycle top reached only ~2.5, suggesting the ETF era may have compressed peaks.
NUPL
In profit
0.27
Net Unrealized Profit / Loss — how much profit holders are sitting on. Below 0 = underwater; higher readings = euphoric greed. Pre-2024 cycles peaked near 0.75; the 2025 cycle reached only ~0.56, suggesting the ETF era may have compressed peaks.
Ethereum & Altcoins
Price · altseason rotation indicator
Ethereum
$2,023
+0.6%
24h
ETH / BTC
0.0274
Bitcoin-led market
Altcoin Rotation
Bitcoin-led market — altcoins have not yet rotated
Markets
Stocks · cross-asset sentiment
S&P 500
7,580
+0.2%
Nasdaq
26,973
+0.2%
Dow
51,032
+0.7%
VIX
Stock Market Fear
15
Calm
F&G
Crypto Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
Risk Dashboard
6 of 10 thresholds healthy · 1 showing stress
Show all 9 indicators ↓ 6 healthy · 3 elevated · 1 triggered
2.72%
Healthytrigger 4.50%
Dual Fear - Alert
INACTIVE
VIX15
F&G23
Show how this indicator works ↓
When stock market fear and crypto fear spike at the same time, this lights up green — consider increasing your DCA. It's rare, and historically one of the best times to invest.
Score Breakdown
The daily score combines 13 indicators on a −100 to +100 scale, with 6 safety overrides monitoring for extremes. Think of it like a baseball batting average — a +30 is meaningful, the same way that a .300 batting average is great. A +60 is .400 territory — those are the rare readings. Most scores land between −30 and +30.
Show indicator-by-indicator scoring ↓
ECONOMY
+5Credit strong (OAS 2.72%)BULLISH
+5M2 growing (+2.1%)BULLISH
+3Weak dollar (DXY 98.9)BULLISH
+2Employment stable (0.13)BULLISH
+1Manufacturing positive (52.7%)BULLISH
MARKET SENTIMENT
-8BTC ETF outflows ($-1.5B)BEARISH
+7High fear (Fear & Greed 23)BULLISH
CRYPTO
+5MVRV undervalued (0.66)BULLISH
— 5 indicators neutral (VIX calm, Services steady, BTC near 200-day avg, Dual Fear inactive, Stablecoin flat)
+28 bullish
+
-8 bearish
=
+20
How the engine works, override triggers, and score thresholds:
Override Triggers
0 of 6
Show all override checks ↓
Credit crisis
Clear
Oil shock
Clear
Euphoria composite
Clear
VIX pause zone
Clear
VIX capitulation
Clear
Dual capitulation
Clear
All clear — score-based signal active
HUD DCA™
Score History
58d
Show score chart and trend detail ↓
Favorable zone · 58 days recorded
▼ -1
Mar 30Today
Chart color: green = trending up, blue = pulling back (still positive), red = trending into negative territory.
Bottom Line
Conditions are modestly favorable. Standard DCA.
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This is NOT financial advice. HUD DCA™ provides market condition assessments for informational and educational purposes only. HUD DCA™ LLC is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or commodity trading advisor. All historical results are hypothetical, backtested with the benefit of hindsight, and do not represent actual trading. Model parameters were optimized using historical data. Out-of-sample validation (2017–2019) was performed on data not used during calibration. Digital assets are highly volatile and involve substantial risk of total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.